Recession Watch, Israel-Hamas Conflict Restarts, Dismantling of DOE, and Klarna in the Food Delivery Biz.

Good morning. It’s Friday, March 21.

Today, we are covering U.S. potential recession trends, the restarting of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Trump’s dismantling of the Department of Education, the future of everything, a wild ‘White Lotus’ monologue, and more.

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Best,

Rashad Drakeford

Co-Founder & Publisher, Good Diet

U.S. Recession Watch

The U.S. economy is flashing warning signs—from falling consumer confidence to a tumbling stock market—raising fears that a slowdown, if not a full-blown recession, may be on the horizon. While “hard” data like job growth and spending remain relatively stable, “soft” indicators like sentiment and investment confidence have tanked, creating a disconnect that economists are watching closely. Add to that President Trump’s unpredictable trade policies and a steady rise in economic uncertainty, and it’s no wonder Wall Street and Main Street alike are bracing for what comes next.

• Consumer and Market Sentiment Are Sinking: The S&P 500 has fallen more than 7.6% since its peak, and consumer sentiment is hovering near some of the lowest levels seen in the past decade. While spending hasn’t collapsed yet, history shows that drops in confidence often precede real economic slowdowns.

• Policy Whiplash Is Fueling Uncertainty: Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs—announcing, delaying, then reinstating them—has spiked the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to levels near early-pandemic highs. This kind of instability makes it harder for businesses to plan, invest, or hire, increasing the risk of a self-inflicted downturn.

• There’s Less Cushion Than It Seems: Forecasters had expected 2% GDP growth this year, down from 2.5% in 2024, but even that may be optimistic as hiring slows and consumer savings dwindle. Without strong fundamentals to fall back on, even a mild slowdown could push unemployment up and trigger political fallout for the White House.

Gaza Crisis Escalates Again

After a brief period of relative calm, violence has once again erupted in Gaza following the collapse of a fragile two-month ceasefire. Israeli airstrikes across the territory have killed at least 70 Palestinians, while Hamas has resumed launching rockets into Israel, reigniting a deadly cycle of retaliation. With peace talks stalled and humanitarian conditions worsening by the day, this renewed fighting pushes the region even further from a sustainable resolution.

• Civilian Casualties and Humanitarian Crisis: Gaza’s Health Ministry reports that at least 70 Palestinians were killed in the latest wave of Israeli airstrikes, many of them women and children. Entire residential blocks have been flattened, adding to the more than 1.9 million people already displaced since the conflict intensified last fall.

• Ceasefire Breakdown and Rising Hostilities: The ceasefire, which had largely held for two months, unraveled after a failed hostage deal and new accusations of violations from both sides. Hamas resumed rocket fire into southern Israel, while the Israeli military expanded its offensive deeper into Rafah and central Gaza.

• Diplomatic Deadlock and Global Response: The U.N. and other international mediators have expressed alarm, warning that renewed violence makes hostage negotiations and humanitarian access nearly impossible. Despite calls for restraint, both Israeli and Hamas leadership appear dug in, with little incentive to de-escalate amid mounting civilian casualties and political pressure.

DoorDash and Klarna Partner on Food Delivery Payment Plan

DoorDash is getting into the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) game, announcing a new partnership with Klarna that will let customers split up payments on everything from burgers to groceries. It’s Klarna’s first major move into food delivery and part of a broader strategy to make BNPL a default option for everyday spending. With Klarna preparing to go public and DoorDash holding the largest share of the U.S. delivery market, this deal is as much about IPO optics as it is about consumer choice.

• A New Way to Pay for Dinner: DoorDash customers will soon have the option to pay in full, in four interest-free installments, or defer payments until their next payday. It’s the company’s first BNPL partnership in the U.S., and a sign that even low-ticket items like takeout are being folded into flexible payment ecosystems.

• Klarna’s U.S. Push Ahead of IPO: Klarna is riding a wave of momentum as it prepares to go public on the NYSE, reporting a 24% increase in revenue to $2.8 billion in 2024, and flipping to a $181 million profit after a loss the previous year. The DoorDash deal follows a recent exclusive with Walmart-backed OnePay, giving Klarna new reach in everyday consumer transactions.

• Big Growth, Bigger Scrutiny: While Klarna now has 675,000 merchant partners in 26 countries, it’s entering a phase of increased regulatory attention, particularly in the UK, where new BNPL rules are expected. As BNPL services expand into food, gas, and other daily essentials, watchdogs are raising questions about how these loans impact financial health—especially among lower-income users.

Boston Celtics Sell for a Record $6.1 Billion

The Boston Celtics—one of the NBA’s most iconic and successful franchises—are changing hands for a jaw-dropping $6.1 billion, the highest price ever paid for a U.S. sports team. The new controlling owner, Bill Chisholm of Symphony Technology Group, is a lifelong Celtics fan and tech investor stepping into big shoes, with Wyc Grousbeck staying on to lead operations through 2028. This deal doesn’t just reset the value of an NBA team—it may accelerate league expansion and force tough decisions about Boston’s pricey championship-caliber roster.

• Record-Breaking Sale Sets New Market Standard: At $6.1 billion, the Celtics now hold the record for the most expensive U.S. franchise sale, narrowly edging out the $6.05 billion paid for the Washington Commanders in 2023. The valuation is nearly 20x what the Grousbeck-led group paid in 2002 ($360 million), reflecting the surging value of major sports properties in the streaming and global content era.

• Ownership Shift, But Not Overnight: Although Chisholm is taking over as the principal owner, Grousbeck will remain in charge of basketball operations until the 2027–28 season, maintaining continuity in the near term. Meanwhile, private equity firm Sixth Street is investing over $1 billion in the deal, becoming one of just a few PE firms with ownership stakes in multiple NBA teams.

• Luxury Tax and Roster Questions Loom: If the Celtics retain their current roster next season, they’re projected to face a total cost of over $400 million in salary and luxury taxes, thanks to the NBA’s stricter repeater penalties. With a title window wide open and costs climbing, Chisholm’s group will soon face major choices about how deep they’re willing to go financially to keep this core together.

Department of Education Shutdown

President Trump has issued an executive order to begin dismantling the U.S. Department of Education, a major step in his long-promised agenda to downsize the federal role in public education. While full elimination requires congressional approval, the order immediately kicks off a transition plan to shift key responsibilities—like student aid and civil rights enforcement—to other agencies. Notably, the department has already laid off nearly half of its approximately 4,200 employees, raising concerns about the continuity of essential services. The move has ignited fierce debate, with supporters framing it as a return to local control and critics warning of chaos, inequity, and long-term harm to students.

• A Bureaucratic Break-Up Begins: The order tasks the Education Secretary with developing a plan to wind down the department, which serves nearly 50 million students and oversees more than $120 billion in annual funding. While the administration has promised no disruption to services, transferring complex programs like Pell Grants and protections for students with disabilities to other agencies could lead to confusion and gaps in access.

• Congress Still Holds the Final Say: Despite the executive order, dismantling the Department of Education entirely would require an act of Congress—a tall order given Democratic resistance and the department’s central role in enforcing federal education laws. This means the order is more about reshaping priorities and structure for now, but it sets a precedent that future administrations could follow or resist.

• Equity Concerns Take Center Stage: Educators and civil rights groups warn that eliminating the department could disproportionately impact low-income students, students of color, and students with disabilities who rely on federal oversight for fair treatment and funding. Meanwhile, conservative advocates argue this will empower states and districts to innovate and reduce federal “overreach” in local schools.

Bill Simmons Podcast: The Future of Everything with Derek Thompson (Listen)

“The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Derek Thompson for another edition of The Future of Everything, during which they discuss Derek and Ezra Klein’s new book ‘Abundance,’ before sharing their predictions for the future of politics, tech, sports, and culture.”

Ezra Klein Show: Democrats Need to Face Why Trump Won (Listen)

“After the last election, there were all kinds of theories about where Democrats went wrong. But now, four months later, we have a lot more data – and it tells a few clear stories. David Shor is the head of data science at Blue Rose Research, a Democratic polling firm, which does an enormous amount of surveying of the electorate. A few weeks ago, Shor was walking me through a deck he made of key charts and numbers that explain the election results. And I thought this would be good to do in public. Because this is information that doesn’t just help explain what went wrong for Democrats in 2024. It’s a set of hard truths they need to keep in mind to mount a comeback in 2026 and 2028.”

Today, Explained: What If We Stopped Shopping? (Listen)

“Fed up with consumerism, Mia Westrap went a whole year without buying unnecessary stuff. She went viral, and so did her goal. Now, the Buy Nothing movement is fighting back against mindless consumption by doing...nothing.”

Pod Save The World: Trump Reignites the Forever Wars (Listen)

“Tommy and Ben discuss Bibi Netanyahu restarting the war in Gaza as he creates a new domestic political crisis, why Trump's airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen are likely to fail, and the gutting of Voice of America. They also cover the latest in Trump's efforts to harness the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged gang members to El Salvador, how Putin continues to play Trump in negotiations over Ukraine, Serbia's wave of student-led protests over government corruption, and why patrons at a popular Chinese hotpot chain are getting more than just a full refund. Then Ben speaks with Pankaj Mishra, author of The World After Gaza: A History, about how Israel's relationship with the legacy of the Holocaust has shifted, decolonization in the 20th century, and how a writer can be of service in these dark times.”

Prestige Podcast: The White Lotus Season 3, Episode 5 Deep Dive and Theories: Sam Rockwell and the Best TV Monologues Ever (Listen)

“Jo and Rob react to the scene that’s been hailed the "highlight of the season" so far, the brotherly love at the Full Moon Party, and the most meme-able moments, including one just in time for March Madness. Plus, the viral cameo sparks debate of its place among the best TV monologues of all time.”